---
title: Back-tested APY
description: What a note would have earned in a replay of past prices, with its bad year beside it.
---

The Liquidity page shows a back-tested APY: what notes would have earned a year, replayed on past prices. It shows the typical year with a bad year beside it, never the typical year alone.

|              | Back-tested |
| ------------ | ----------- |
| Typical year | **+68%**    |
| Bad year     | **+50%**    |

Back-tested, not live, not a forecast. BTC and ETH since April 2021, at the launch fee setting. One-year windows that overlap, about five years of history in all. 5% of traders assumed better informed. The pool starts at 10 days of trading volume and ends near 25, about a third of that from new deposits. "Bad year" is the line below which the worst 5% of those years ended.

## What it isn't

- It isn't a live return. No real notes have earned it.
- It isn't a forecast. Future years can earn less, or lose money.
- It isn't what you would earn by joining today. A fuller pool shares the same positions across more notes.
- The 5% of better-informed traders is an assumption, not a measurement.